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STRIKE THREE: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
The Claim
The tax cuts will boost gross domestic product (GDP) growth to between 4 and 6 percent.
Donald Trump on December 16, 2017 at the White House: “The economy now has hit 3 percent. Nobody thought we’d be anywhere close. I think we can go to 4, 5, and maybe even 6 percent ultimately. Each percentage point is $2.5 trillion. We are back. We are really going to start to rock. We need this as our final push and you’re going to see some numbers that are really great. You’re going to see great jobs numbers. Jobs are going to come pouring back into this country, which we need very much.”
The Truth
After experiencing a two-quarter “sugar high,” GDP growth fell to the same average growth rate as before. The growth rate increased from 2.3 percent in 2017 to 3 percent in 2018 but fell to 2.2 percent in 2019.
< In 2020, the growth rate was -3.5 percent but we're leaving 2020 out at this point because, thanks to the pandemic, the entire year is an outlier. >