​Far from the Republican’s promise that their steep tariffs would reduce U.S. imports, shrink our trade deficit, and bring American manufacturing “roaring back” – beginning in April, U.S. manufacturing employment declined every month in 2025 (factories employed 72,000 fewer people at the end of the year than when President Trump declared “Liberation Day” in April). This extended a contraction that had seen over 200,000 roles vanish since 2023.

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The thing that makes ZERO sense is that the same people who are trying to kill solar and wind projects and subsidies for electric vehicles and heat pumps are the same people who say they want to revive U.S. manufacturing.

 

But revive it for what?

 

Sure, the pandemic proved we need to bring vital goods back from overseas and that we must stop solely relying on “just in time” supply chains. And – yes – it’s true the U.S. won World War II in part by producing more of everything than our enemies. In fact, in 1942 an American factory assembled a supply ship in less than five days.

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But America no longer has that type of manufacturing capability. Hey, we're all for building it back! But we hate to break it to the Trump/Vance administration: If we’re not going to sell our products to the world market, there is really no need to. Our domestic needs simply don’t justify it. This is yet another reason – out of many – their trade wars make no sense. Being a good ally isn’t about just about being nice to our friends. If we push everyone away, who are we going to sell our stuff to? Does Donald Trump & Co. ever even think about that reality?

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On the flip side, it will be a slam dunk for America if we decide to go all-in on global trade. Analysts estimate there is a $130 trillion cumulative global market opportunity in clean energy technology through 2050. Right now, the United States captures only a small share of the global trade in many of these technologies, while China alone accounted for roughly half of global exports of key clean-energy technologies in 2025 – so just imagine the possible upside!

 

< Sidebar: A quick word about “globalization,” defined here as the interconnectedness and interdependence of world economies, cultures, and populations, driven by cross-border trade in goods, services, tech, and capital flows. Some people say globalization has resulted in wage stagnation for low-skilled U.S. workers and has led to job losses through outsourcing and, without question, global trade has hit certain sectors of our economy hard. That said, globalization is not wholly responsible for the displacement of the American worker. Even if we halt all progression toward globalization – including imports and outsourcing – automation, productivity improvements, changing consumer demand and technological change alone are causing some jobs to become obsolete. One of the great strengths of a capitalist economy, however, is its ability to adapt – to create new industries, new businesses, and new kinds of work as old ways disappear. A healthy capitalist system should not try to freeze the economy in place; it should give people a realistic opportunity to acquire new skills, move into new work, and share in the prosperity that economic change creates. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean every displaced worker can easily make the transition. The great news is that, if we are proactive, we can make the landing as soft as possible for those who may face hardships because of these shifts. Believe us, it is far better to endure a little pain now – while we still have control over how to absorb it – than to live in denial until the music just stops and there aren’t enough chairs… which is exactly why we need a comprehensive, well-planned strategy. To that end, 1787 has really cool ones to help with this transition. Read more about America’s Best Chance, our education reform initiative and U.S. Works, our jobs program. >

 

A two-part report from Boston Consulting Group – one the world’s “Big Three” management consulting firms – found that the U.S. has an opportunity to boost economic growth, create millions of jobs, and solidify America’s position as a global leader in the clean energy marketplace by creating an unparalleled advantage across ten clean energy technologies (the think tank Third Way and Breakthrough Energy commissioned the report).

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The first part of the report revealed six of these – electric vehicles, clean steel, low-carbon hydrogen, long-duration energy storage, direct air capture, and advanced nuclear small modular reactors – and estimated that “American players could enjoy a cumulative domestic market in these technologies that will be worth from $9 trillion to $10 trillion from now through 2050.” But it gets even better: “U.S. players stand to gain far more by developing a competitive edge that gives them a leading position in global markets. We estimate that the cumulative global serviceable addressable market (SAM) for U.S. companies in the six technologies – which encompasses all countries where US exports are possible – could be worth a staggering $60 trillion through 2050 in prioritized value chain segments.” The second part of the report added geothermal, carbon capture utilization and storage, offshore wind, and solar to the list and surmised that “the priority value chain segments within these four technologies will have a cumulative global market size of $70 trillion between now and 2050, and U.S. industries are well-positioned to grab a large share.”

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For decades – as our leader’s turned their attention to wars in the Middle East and domestic political squabbles – China was playing four-dimensional chess, developing not just cutting-edge industries, but entire technical ecosystems that all work in tandem with one another. Because China is designing their industries to overlap and interlock, they can leverage them in ways that significantly multiplies their efficiency, effectiveness and profitability.

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One of the projects China designed in its pursuit of economic self-reliance – something called Made in China 2025, launched in 2015 – is a state-run initiative that uses government subsidies to upgrade its manufacturing sector from low-cost goods to an innovative, highly advanced dynamo. As a result, China’s manufacturing ascendency happened quickly during Phase One. The share of Chinese global production increased from 3 percent to over 30 percent between 1990 and 2022 and is projected to account for 45 percent of global manufacturing by 2030.

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They are also making sure they have the human resources necessary to continue their strategy far into the future. While the Trump/Vance administration focuses on fueling culture wars in our public schools through things like “critical race theory,” who uses what bathroom, and putting the Ten Commandments in every classroom, China is focused on establishing national laboratories to develop top-level talent from an early age, giving tremendous state support to young scientists and engineers.

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Every year, universities in China graduate roughly 3.5 million STEM graduates (science, technology, engineering and math), just short of the number of total graduates (associate, bachelor’s, master’s and PhD programs) in all disciplines in the United States.

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These graduates are busy working on things like a low-earth orbit (LEO) satellite Internet service to compete with Western commercial satellite Internet services; future robot moon landings to follow-up those in 2020 and 2024 that returned with lunar samples; tweaks to the Tiangong (“Heavenly Palace”) space station China established in 2022; developing antisatellite weapons that can cripple GPS and other U.S. space-based systems; and the space-based data centers that China plans to use to expand its already significant presence in space (this is in addition to their plans to expand resource development like asteroid mining; space debris monitoring; and an expansion into space tourism).

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While America spends billions on reheating antiquated design concepts and overhauling outdated infrastructure, China is investing in infrastructure straight out of The Jetsons television show – enjoying practically full 5G coverage, a matrix of bullet trains, and almost nine times as many robots as the U.S. (and more than the rest of the world combined… in 2025, well over two million robots were working in Chinese factories).

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In China’s quest for self-reliance, Beijing’s first order of business was to identify domestic “chokepoints” (i.e., sectors where it was too reliant on the West) and worked to diffuse these points of leverage, strengthening its domestic industries and developing alternative sources to the United States for resources that might be tight. Although this cost them a fortune and was at times inefficient, this strategy allowed China to turn the tables and establish choke points to pressure the American economy.

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… which has worked beautifully for them. Their switcharoo is the reason Beijing was able to call Donald Trump’s bluff – and why he has retreated over and over again and got the nickname TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) – since his return to the Oval Office. Our president obviously forgot (or more likely never understood) that U.S. negotiations with China are not like those in the Middle East, where the U.S. has leverage thanks to weapons systems, security umbrellas, superior technology, and a U.N. Security Council veto.

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In quite an opposite scenario, China and the U.S. are bound by mutual dependence – which means that bullying, bluffing and bombastic tactics WILL NOT work. While China depends on America for advanced chip design and aerospace technology, America depends on China for about 70 percent of our rare earth imports, over 70 percent of lithium-ion battery imports, and A LOT of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

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​​So, here’s the trillion-dollar question: If we do decide to bring our manufacturing, in Donald Trump’s words, “roaring back,” why on God’s green earth would we not kill multiple birds with one stone when we do it – like China does?

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Ships are a great example. Since 2017, China has been the largest shipbuilder on the planet. Fourteen of the twenty largest shipyards in the world by the size of their order books are Chinese. Of the 89 million deadweight tons of commercial ships built worldwide in 2024, 50.8 million – 57 percent – were built in China. Its largest state-owned shipbuilder produced more commercial vessels by tonnage that year than the entire American shipbuilding industry has built since the end of World War II. U.S. Navy data puts China’s overall shipbuilding capacity by gross tonnage at more than 200 times that of the United States. In 2023, China delivered 972 commercial ships; the United States delivered seven.

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China isn’t building ships because they like to see them bob up and down in their own harbor – they sell them to people around the world. Companies around the globe purchase 75 percent of ships built at China’s dual-use shipyards. This obviously provides billions of dollars in revenue, but it does way more: It transfers key technologies from government laboratories and academic institutions into China’s naval industrial base. This so-called “military-civil fusion” strategy – one that integrates military and commercial production at China’s shipyards – speeds up the adoption of innovative technology, reduces production costs, and increases their capacity to build, repair and sustain its fleet.

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Guys, we have got to start thinking more like this. Donald Trump, JD Vance, and other Republicans can call green technologies whatever kooky, eighth grade-schoolyard names they want, but whether they like it or not, this is where the world is headed… and if we don’t pull ourselves together – fast – we’re going to miss the boat from all sides.